THE OIL RESERVE FALLACY

THE OIL RESERVE FALLACY
Proven reserves are not a measure of future supply

“We are looking at more than four and a half trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil. That number translates into 140 years of oil at current rates of consumption, or to put it anther way, the world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional oil potential.

"That fact alone should discredit the argument that peak oil is imminent and put our minds at ease concerning future petrol supplies.”


http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/

Or even the Dept of Energy's study (which does not take into account anything but pooled oil reserves).

The bottom line

Will the world ever physically run out of crude oil? No, but only because it will eventually become very expensive in absence of lower-cost alternatives. When will worldwide production of conventionally reservoired crude oil peak? That will in part depend on the rate of demand growth, which is subject to reduction via both technological advancements in petroleum product usage such as hybrid-powered automobiles and the substitution of new energy source technologies such as hydrogen-fed fuel cells where the hydrogen is obtained, for example, from natural gas, other hydrogen-rich organic compounds, or electrolysis of water. It will also depend in part on the rate at which technological advancement, operating in concert with world oil market economics, accelerates large-scale development of unconventional sources of crude such as tar sands and very heavy oils. Production from some of the Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan heavy oil deposits is already economic and growing.

In any event, the world production peak for conventionally reservoired crude is unlikely to be "right around the corner" as so many other estimators have been predicting. Our analysis shows that it will be closer to the middle of the 21st century than to its beginning. Given the long lead times required for significant mass-market penetration of new energy technologies, this result in no way justifies complacency about both supply-side and demand-side research and development.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html



In 1982, U.S. reserves were 27.858 billion barrels. In 2005, U.S. reserves were 21.757 billion barrels. So we drew down our reserves by 6 billion barrels. Imagine my shock to discover our production over that time period. What would you guess? Six billion barrels? Ten? In fact, oil production from these reserves since 1982 totals 56.9 billion barrels! Amazingly, in the past 24 years we have produced 57 billion barrels of oil and pulled our reserves down by only 6 billion barrels. That seems incredible, but it appears that this is what has happened.
http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2006/12/amazing-us-oil-production-statistic.html

I'll finish off with a little history of oil and oil production. If you read nothing else here you should read this.
Timeline

• 1857 -- Romania produces 2,000 barrels of oil, marking the beginning of the modern oil industry.

• 1859, Aug. 25 -- Edwin L. Drake strikes oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania

• 1862 -- First commercial oil production in Canada, also 1863 in Russia.

• 1862 -- Most widely used lamp fuel (camphene) taxed in US at aprox. $1 a gallon; kerosene taxed at 10 cent per gallon. (Kovarik, 1997)

• 1863 -- John D. Rockefeller starts the Excelsior Refinery in Cleveland, Ohio.

• 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.

• 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).

• 1901 -- Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.

• 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply."

• 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. "The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste.... Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight... and comfort and endurance, to avert what ... will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation."

• 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent." (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added).

• 1925 -- US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.

• 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.

• 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.

• 1930 -- Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.

• 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.

• 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrelsof oil remain.

• 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)

• 1956 -- M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.

• 1966 - 1977 -- 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: "These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.")

• 1973 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics.

• 1978 -- Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).

• 1979 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Midde Eastern politics.

• 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels

• 1993 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels

• 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels.

• 2005 -- Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand

http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html



So I'll ask you if you really think that we're running out of oil anytime soon and don't you think the petroleum industry has a vested (price) interest in maintaining that we will.

Not a comment, not even a emoticon

This wouldn't have anything to do with the futures and spot prices of oil being manipulated, would it?

More like oil prices being used as an economic weapon against the west. The fact is that in Afghanistan we're using 570k gallons of fuel per day and in Iraq we're using 1.7 million gallons of fuel per day. The recent spike in oil prices appear to have been manipulated via the stock market to create a cascade economic effect. The recent dip in oil prices are most likely the effect of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait driving down oil prices to create an economic effect in Iran.

The big story however is that in the history of petroleum there has never been a smaller revision of worldwide oil reserves. The numbers are always larger and despite war and catastrophe shortages are relatively unknown.

The multinational oil companies are complicit in this. Their only allegiance is greed and profit.

Buzzy wrote:THE OIL RESERVE FALLACY
Proven reserves are not a measure of future supply

“We are looking at more than four and a half trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil. That number translates into 140 years of oil at current rates of consumption, or to put it anther way, the world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional oil potential.

"That fact alone should discredit the argument that peak oil is imminent and put our minds at ease concerning future petrol supplies.”

They've been saying were almost out since well see above.

when 1 country producing it dries up I'll think about worrying.